Question about Fire Sales and Max Ammos

[PunchAPack]

Im planning to aim for 100 on Origins soon, using the well known Ice staff, wind staff, tank station and EE completed strategy.

Most of you will know that Max Ammos are crucial on Origins.

Most of you also know that the box is near useless on solo Origins.

So if I do not hit the box enough to get the bear, which will not impact my game, Fire Sales will not drop, will this overall increase the chance of Max Ammo dropping? Do drops work that way? For example without a bear, I have a 1/5 chance for Max Ammo, but with fire sale thrown in aswell, it becomes 1/6.

So when a drop is dropped, is the drop set and then decided what the drop will be afterwards, or is a zombie guaranteed to drop a certain drop, and thus Fire Sale zombies will simply not drop anything.

If its the former, Eliminating fire sale will be beneficial, if its the latter, well, not so much.

Does anyone have some hard proof of this? Or and info relating to this?

If I can find out if not having Sales really increases Max Ammo chances that would be amazing.

[Stop Mocking Me0]

Drops are a tricky thing, but no, I do not think you will receive more max amos for less fire sales. 

 

It's hard to tell how drops work in BO2 because nearly every map has what is known as a "rouge drop", a drop gotten from not-traditional zombie-death method: 

Tranzit: EMPs (turn off drops) 

Nuketown: Bunker. 

Die rise: Perk bottles and nova jumpers

MOTD: Brutus 

MOTD Greif:  Wolf and brutus

Buried: Ghosts, big guy changing drops

Origins: Panzers, ice carts, digs, lightning-staff-parts-tank, boxes, elemental fists. 

 

Those drop-alterations can effect drops constantly.

 

 

But no, I do not think your max amo account will go down if you use the box. 

[lead_psychopath]

Drops are a tricky thing, but no, I do not think you will receive more max amos for less fire sales.

It's hard to tell how drops work in BO2 because nearly every map has what is known as a "rouge drop", a drop gotten from not-traditional zombie-death method:

Tranzit: EMPs (turn off drops)

Nuketown: Bunker.

Die rise: Perk bottles and nova jumpers

MOTD: Brutus

MOTD Greif: Wolf and brutus

Buried: Ghosts, big guy changing drops

Origins: Panzers, ice carts, digs, lightning-staff-parts-tank, boxes, elemental fists.

Those drop-alterations can effect drops constantly.

But no, I do not think your max amo account will go down if you use the box.

I think there's a thread that Danishka made that that line of thought. His thread is a mega Origins Solo guide.

I would disagree with Mocking, in that you do have a 1/5 chance that you will get a max ammo instead of a 1/6.

But at the end of the day drops are random. You might get 4 nukes, or 4 zombie bloods. As unlikely as it seems though.

[Awful Lawton]

Yes, as one of the high round players here (Dahniska also) I can confirm that if you get the guns you want in the 1st box (on origins, you shouldn't really need to), you will not get firesales at all. Look at the recent ascension record, although a bo1 map, tkart12 never got firesales, which equaled more max ammo drops, so same principle should apply.

[MysteryMachineX]

Yes, as one of the high round players here (Dahniska also) I can confirm that if you get the guns you want in the 1st box (on origins, you shouldn't really need to), you will not get firesales at all. Look at the recent ascension record, although a bo1 map, tkart12 never got firesales, which equaled more max ammo drops, so same principle should apply.

 

Take his word for it.

[Stop Mocking Me0]

Do not take my word for it. I almost never get the box more then once in solo origins. I never get firesales… 

[MegaAfroMan]

Yes you will get more max ammos, but no it will not 1/5 instead of 1/6 if the drop calculations are similar to those in BO1. 

I don't remember the specifics, but Max Ammo was set up so that there was an increasing chance as the rounds got higher that if the game rolled a max ammo, it would instead roll again. After round 35 or 45 (sorry for the huge range, this is off the top of my memory) it was pretty much a guaranteed reroll, so max ammo was half as likely as any other drop. Taking Firesale out of the equation should help, but not enough is known about the drop process to declare whether or not the lack of firesale increases all drop odds across the board, or if Max Ammo (and/or any other drops) are pre-set to certain odds with the others being dynamic.

 

The only way to come up with a valid theory is to go through and analyze all the drops of a large set of games with firesales and a large set of games without firesales, which I don't think anyone has done empirically.

[PunchAPack]

Thanks for the responses guys, I guess ill leave box alone to eliminate sales.

Ray Gun Mark 2 is useful for Panzers, but Boomhilda will suffice.

It is good how everything needed for high rounds can be gotten without box (staffs, G-strike, Boomhilda)

[MysteryMachineX]

Yes you will get more max ammos, but no it will not 1/5 instead of 1/6 if the drop calculations are similar to those in BO1. 

I don't remember the specifics, but Max Ammo was set up so that there was an increasing chance as the rounds got higher that if the game rolled a max ammo, it would instead roll again. After round 35 or 45 (sorry for the huge range, this is off the top of my memory) it was pretty much a guaranteed reroll, so max ammo was half as likely as any other drop. Taking Firesale out of the equation should help, but not enough is known about the drop process to declare whether or not the lack of firesale increases all drop odds across the board, or if Max Ammo (and/or any other drops) are pre-set to certain odds with the others being dynamic.

 

The only way to come up with a valid theory is to go through and analyze all the drops of a large set of games with firesales and a large set of games without firesales, which I don't think anyone has done empirically.

 

Oh I forgot about that. That was because at those high rounds the game would re-roll. You'd essentially have to get a Max Ammo twice mathematically before even one would appear. 1/6 turned into 1/(6*6) = 1/36. Therefore you'd be increasing your odds to 1/(5*5) = 1/25.

[Chopper]

Don't complete the EE, there is no need.  It is known to glitch out the game and cause invisible drops.

 

If you wish, complete until the 3 robots are walking constantly and then start whatever strategy.  Having the 3 robots lined up, makes completing rounds easier using their feet,

[Dahniska]

I can guarantee from my many 140+ games on Mob and my many 80+ games on Origins that you do not want fire sales for Solo in Origins (or Mob for that matter). 

Basically how drops seem to work in Black Ops 2 is that you are guaranteed 4 a round (starts somewhere in the 40-50 range and continues all the rest of the game, same concept on 190+ as 50+). The rule is that you will never get more than 2 of a particular drop each round (from the ones dropped by regular zombies) and that if you do not get a drop on one round, you are guaranteed that drop as one of the four the next round (only drops you will see are the ones that are available at the time for that map). 

For example, you get 2 nukes on round 60. Then a double points and an Insta-kill (Mob of the Dead btw). That means next round you will for sure get a Max Ammo. I've seen rounds where you get double of two drops, for example 2 nukes and 2 double points. The next round you are guaranteed at least 1 Max Ammo and 1 Insta-kill. 

In Origins you throw Zombie Blood into the mix. Because of this you have a lower chance of getting a Max Ammo since the game has more drops to randomly choose from. You do NOT want Fire Sales ever in Mob or Origins, Solo or not. 

Brutus' drop in Mob is counted as one of your guaranteed 4, for whatever reason. The zombies will only drop 3 more any time Brutus shows up. The Panzer's drop is considered separate. 

Trust me I've played this game so much and seen this so much. This is invariably how it works. You do not want Fire Sales. Anyone who tells you that what I've said here is inaccurate does not know what they are talking about. 

[Dobis]

Sounds legit to me. I thought that before

[mralways1]

I can guarantee from my many 140+ games on Mob and my many 80+ games on Origins that you do not want fire sales for Solo in Origins

I gathered a bunch of averages throughout 20 games on Origins, at rd50 thru rd60, 10 games with fire sales and 10 games without..... Not sure if you or anyone has ever tried it, what do you think my avgs ended up being?